Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management /

Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management /

This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a "paradigm shift" that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies.  "Robust simulation" is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Springer eBooks
Main Author: Taylor, Craig E. (Author)
Corporate Author: SpringerLink (Online service)
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Cham : Springer International Publishing : Imprint: Springer, 2015.
Edition:1st ed. 2015.
Subjects:
earth sciences.
Natural disasters.
Computer simulation.
System theory.
Earth Sciences.
Natural Hazards.
Simulation and Modeling.
Complex Systems.
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4
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Table of Contents:
  • Introduction: Initial Queries Going Forward
  • The Deductivist Theory of Probability and Statistics
  • The Frequency Theory of Probability
  • Probability and Randomness as Beliefs: Bayesian Theory
  • More Challenges to Tradition: Extreme Value Diagnostics, Power Laws, and the Wobble
  • Mathematization of Statistics: Flexibility and Convergence
  • Robust Simulation and Non-linear Reasoning: Quantitative and Qualitative Examples
  • Managing Expectations: Qualitative Considerations And Quantitative Decision Procedures
  • Conclusions and Queries.

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